When Prophecy Fails
From the time that Jesus Christ returned to heaven after His resurrection, there
have been people yearning so badly for his return to earth that they have poured
over the prophecies of the Bible to try to "discern the times" in which they lived.
Every generation of Christians has hoped they were living in the time when the clouds
would be rolled back as a scroll and the Lord would descend to put an end to Man's
miserable rule over Man.
And in many of those generations, Bible students have been convinced that they have
been able to determine, through the prophetic hints in the Bible, that Jesus was,
indeed, coming soon, in the lifetime of most living in their own generation. Not
content with just the general hope, many have also worked out elaborate mathematical
schemes whereby they could pinpoint not just the generation, but the decade, the
year, the month, perhaps even the day that their "blessed hope" would be fulfilled.
This phenomenon has increased greatly in the past two centuries, and even more in
the past two decades. Teacher after teacher, group after group has arisen to publish
magazines, books, pamphlets, study guides and more to convince others of the certainty
of their predictions of chronological details of "the Return." Thousands of lectures
and sermons have been given and thousands of TV and radio programs have been recorded
all with the primary aim of persuading the public to get on the bandwagon of the
latest prediction of the year of the start of the Great Tribulation, or the "rapture,"
or even the Advent of the Lord Himself.
The pace of this speculation grew even more frantic in some religious circles as
the year 2000 approached. Even those who didn't normally focus on dates seemed to
be mesmerized by the number of zeros after the 2! Surely, thought many, the Lord
will tarry no longer than the end of the millenium. Thus dogmatic pronouncements
on specific dates were plastered on websites, trumpeted on radio talk shows, circulated
in newsletters. Many ministries have arisen with the primary goal of bringing together
in fellowship under one teacher or group those who were convinced of the prophetic
scenario of that teacher or group. Each of these may have also taught elements of
the Gospel and truths from the scriptures, but in many settings these almost seemed
to be an afterthought. The biggest publicity, the most printed material, the most
"bandwidth" on radio and on the Internet was devoted to endless feeding of the desires
of followers for more and more details about the prophetic scenario.
To date, ALL of these many, many, many prophetic pronouncements of the past 2000
years have failed.
"When prophecy fails," what happens to all those faithful supporters whose generous
tithes and offerings made the programs and publications and personal appearances
to promote the prophecies possible? Common sense would suggest that they would abandon
the ministries which had misled them. Common sense would indicate they would accept
the reality of the failure and get on with their life, adjusting their priorities
to give more attention to Bible basics and daily Christian living.
Common sense would be incorrect.
There is a famous book from the 1950s that is a classic in Social Psychology courses
called When Prophecy Fails. The researchers preparing the book stumbled on a "flying
saucer cult," which was predicting "the End," just then forming. In studying apocalyptic
groups of the past which set dates for the Return of Christ or the End of the World,
the researchers had come to some theories about what happens to members of such groups
"when prophecy fails." They outline those in the beginning of the book, and then
embark on a case study of the new cult to see if their theories applied. They did,
perfectly.
This theory has since been applied to other modern cults, and found to be accurate.
Below is an excerpt from a website which uses it to evaluate what happened in the
Jehovah's Witnesses group when their date of 1975 for the beginning of the visible
Kingdom on earth (and many earlier dates they set for the same event) came and passed
with no fulfillment. This is introductory material which explains the basis of the
theory. (Italics and bolding have been added in a few places to call attention to
words or indicate a title.)
In studying this phenomena, credit must be given to Leon Festinger for his cognitive
dissonance theory, as developed in his book When Prophecy Fails, originally published
in 1956 and co-authored by Festinger, Henry W. Riecken and Stanley Schachter. The
authors comprised a research team who conducted a study of a small cult-following
of a Mrs. Marian Keech, a housewife who claimed to receive messages from aliens via
automatic writing. The message of the aliens was one of a coming world cataclysm,
but with the hope of surviving for the elect who listened to them through Keech and
selected other mediums. What Festinger and his associates demonstrated in the end
was that the failure of prophecy often has the opposite effect of what the average
person might expect; the cult following often gets stronger and the members even
more convinced of the truth of their actions and beliefs! This unique paradox is
the focus of attention in this article, and will be later applied specifically to
the Jehovah's Witness movement.
Festinger observes:
"A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns
away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and
he fails to see your point. "We have all experienced the futility of trying to change
a strong conviction, especially if the convinced person has some investment in his
belief. We are familiar with the variety of ingenious defenses with which people
protect their convictions, managing to keep them unscathed through the most devastating
attacks. "But man's resourcefulness goes beyond simply protecting a belief. Suppose
an individual believes something with his whole heart; suppose further that he has
a commitment to this belief, that he has taken irrevocable actions because of it;
finally, suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence,
that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge,
not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever
before. Indeed, he may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting other
people to his view. "
When Prophecy Fails focuses on the failure of prophecies to come true, termed disconfirmation
by Festinger, and the accompanied renewal of energy and faith in their source of
divine guidance. His theory presupposes the cult having certain identifying features,
such as: (a) belief held with deep conviction along with respective actions taken,
(b) the belief or prediction must be specific enough to be disconfirmed (i.e., it
didn't happen), (c) the believer is a member of a group of like-minded believers
who support one another and even proselytize. All of these characteristics were present
in the saucer cult.
Of particular interest in Festinger's book is how the followers of Mrs. Keech reacted
to each disconfirmation (failed date). Little attempt was made to deny the failure.
The strength to continue in the movement was derived, not largely from the rationalizations
, but from the very energy of the group itself and its dedication to the cause. This
explains why proselytizing wasso successful later in reinforcing the group's sagging
belief system. Festinger relates:
"But whatever explanation is made it is still by itself not sufficient. The dissonance
is too important and though they may try to hide it, even from themselves, the believers
still know that the prediction was false and all their preparations were in vain.
The dissonance cannot be eliminated completely by denying or rationalizing the disconfirmation.
But there is a way in which the remaining dissonance can be reduced. If more and
more people can be persuaded that the system of belief is correct, then clearly it
must, after all, be correct. Consider the extreme case: if everyone in the whole
world believed something there would be no question at all as to the validity of
this belief. It is for this reason that we observe the increase in proselytizing
following disconfirmation. If the proselytizing proves successful, then by gathering
more adherents and effectively surrounding himself with supporters, the believer
reduces dissonance to the point where he can live with it."
In the end, the members of the flying saucer cult did not give up their faith in
the Guardians from outer space with their promises of a new world. Despite numerous
prophecies and the resultant disappointment accentuated by many personal sacrifices,
the group remained strong
