Dennis on "Occam's razor"

Occam's Razor

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"

"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."

"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."

"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

. . .or in the only form that takes its own advice. . .
"Keep things simple!"

The other day the owner of where I work came in distressed over losing the corporate check book.  He asked if I had seen him come in with it.  No, I had not.  I asked if he had it when he was home and got in the car.  He said he thought he had but must be mistaken because he looked in the car too.  I said to go back to the car where he'd probably find it.  He did .......and he did.    Occam's Razor!   That is where it had to be and simplest place to look. 

I misplaced a key to a locker at work last week and started the usual, "someone stole the key..blah blah."  I caught myself and went back to Occam.  I had the key in my hand.  I just got back from the restroom.  I washed my hands and threw the paper towel into the newly emptied trash can.  "It's in the trash can,"  I realized.   It was.  I had thrown it out with the paper towel.  Thank you Occam.

In the COG we have been and continue to be supplied with any number of  interesting people who simply can't stand not rising to some lofty position in the spirit and power of Elijah, John the Baptist or Herbert Armstrong.  We have the antics of those that since they have no other person willing or able to ordain them because they are their own Church leader, have to proof text and twist  history long past or just past their way through the Bible and come up with...."and yes brethren...I am an Apostle."  They don't call it "His-story" for nothing. 

Others, pulling the same stunts in the privacy of their self important minds come up with other titles for themselves.  One is "That Prophet," and two others are the Two Witnesses who better hurry and make good on it because there are ten more waiting in the wings to be the Two.  But they just tell everyone this is who they are or the office they hold AND that it was given by GOD of all things, and evidently thousands believe them!!!

Of late, we have been somewhat taken back by Bob Thiel's self ordination and misapplication of having hands being laid on him, being given a "double portion" whatever that meant to him and coming into home plate a Prophet.  Really?  It's that easy?   I have watched his prophetic ministry videos several times and, not to be unkind but...really?   I have read his rationale for getting to be the Lone Ranger Prophet for the age here and again can only come up with...really?   Such complicated stuff and the kind of self promotion that the faithful or brain dead, whichever one it really is according to Occam...(guess?), simply get to accept without question it seems.  Actually COG members never seem to question much.  That button has been disconnected evidently long ago.

Would it not be hilarious if a COG member after just being told "I am an Apostle" said "Oh no you aren't!!"

I only know of one time when this happened.  It was after THE tape sermon where Joe Tkach announced "the Changes."   Mostly, Sabbath was out if need be etc.  In one local congregation a rather average , good old boy type was called on to lead the final song.  He said...and I wish I had been there,  "Well if that ain't the biggest load of shit you ever heard!  Let's all take our hymnals, stand and sing to the REAL God!"    LOL, I fell out hearing that from a relative who was there and think the boy should get a medal. 

A current example of the Razor might be whatever the heck is going on in the mind of Manti Teo and the tale of his poor not dead not girlfriend.  This evidently mythological tale that he has spun is so complicated I won't repeat it but when it is all said and done, what will Occam's Razor say?  Probably he made it all, may have some mental problems and can't explain what he was thinking when he did that.  That of course will come until all the convoluted tales fall apart.

In the same way,  I am sure Lance Armstrong had amazing explanations for his amazing performance but from the git go, Occam would have simply said,  "He's doping."  Pretty simple actually.  It also would have been the correct answer long ago.

So, let's get back to the Apostles, Watchers, Evangelists, Prophets and Witnesses of the Church of God.  I won't tell you what I think is the simplest answer for me.  You decide which is for you.

While a pretty pared down version of Occam's Razor says, "the simplest explanation is usually the most correct," let's go with that as it is the simplest.

1.   Dave Pack is truly the only God Ordained Apostle in this age and RCG is the one true Church on earth.

1a. Dave Pack made up a prooftexting sermon spread over four hours to solve some problems of possible Evangelists defecting to him and as a Pastor "rank" guy had to have more Bible umpf.  Dave is probably not who he thinks he is and RCG is just one more example of a minister not wanting and never able to work for or under anyone else.

2.   Ron Weinland is truly, along with his wife, one of the Two Witnesses of Revelation no matter what's going on.

2a. Ron had deluded himself and God probably has not chosen him for a such a time as this and can't wait around for him to get out of prison.

3.   Gerald Flurry is truly that Prophet spoken of in Malachi and heads up the one true remnant of the Church of God which is the Philadelphian in nature and calling.

3a. Gerald Flurry is kidding himself, is NOT the prophet spoken of in the Bible and has no clue what brotherly love is if you go by the horror stories.

4.   E.W. King is the reincarnation of the one true WCG and Herbert Armstrong still lives.

4b. E.W. King is bonkers.

5.   Dr. Robert Thiel has been set apart as a prophet because when anointed for a minor malady noticed the unsuspecting and sincere minister mentioned a "double portion."  This was then taken as the sign he was called to be a Prophet and his rejection by the Living Church of God proves he is correct and what he noticed about LCG getting off track is true.

5a.  Dr. Robert Thiel is delusional, a little weird and just another misguided person who is a little God haunted and overly Bible soaked. He's not a prophet and if he doesn't do better in his presentations probably won't even make one.

I think we get the point.  I'll spare you using Occam's Razor to question fantastic stories in the Bible that just don't ring true much as Lance Armstrong's or Manti Teo's don't. 

We could ask, which is easier to believe...Children who growl, gnash, writhe and throw themselves often in the fire are possessed by a wicked spirit in high places...or....they had an epileptic episode which no one could explain medically?

We could ask which is easier to believe..  The Old Testament accurately predicts the very things that happened in the New Testament.  Or...The writers of the New Testament used the Old Testament to write the stories which is why they seem so accurate. 

We could ask, and some do, was Jesus  Lord, Liar, Lunatic or Legend?   I spare you.

We could ask, "Which is more logical?  The New Testament Gospels, Epistles and Letters that talk as if soon really meant soon and the day being at hand really meant their day was at hand...and goofed.  Or...The NT scriptures that talk about Jesus coming as soon are dual and those days were only a type for our day which really is the final soon 2000 years later."?

We could use Occam's Razor to ask if the Book of Revelation, upon which the COG's base their entire existence was written to show "things which must shortly come to pass," for the "them" of their time , OR...is really for us today because  Jesus didn't really mean those listening to him then should be taken for  the generation that shall not pass until the Son of Man appears.

We can even go for the details with Occam's Razor and ask if we really think Roman guards fell asleep at the tomb so disciples can steal the body and so that's the excuse why Jesus body is gone.  Or we can think, "The Roman's would execute any soldiers that fell asleep on guard to prevent this with such a famous rebel and would not really do or say something so stupid.

Anyway,  

6.  I and the very small number of actual members of my Schism, Splinter or Sliver COG are the only true Christians following the only true ministers with the only true explanation and interpretation of scripture on earth today.

6a. I may be kidding myself and missing out on many wonderful opportunities to explore things my current Apostle, Prophet or Witness would not approve of. 

7.   All these men will live to see Jesus Second Coming and be proven right

7a. All these men will die in time and the beat will go on. 

"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."

DennisCDiehl@aol.com