Monday, May 22, 2017

Cognitive Biases: Making Right Decisions

From a reader here.


DennisCDiehl said...

The problem is that , just as no one goes to the false church ever, cognitive biases are what the other guy has and thus making poor decisions and coming to wrong conclusions. Me on the other hand.....

DennisCDiehl said...

No wait...poor decision in pronoun pickage..... "I on the other hand...."

Anonymous said...

This works best when applied to troubleshooting self. Most people will apply it to the other guy, to level or leverage.

Anonymous said...

Cognitive Bias is when the winners of wars write the histories, and people listen to the fake news MSM which all experts in propaganda know is propaganda not news.

Unknown said...

Should the article been titled "COG COGNITIVE BIASES" ??

Helen Wheels said...

One of the most common is called "confirmation bias." Confirmation bias is the tendency to always jump to a conclusion, regardless of circumstance, that confirm one's preexisting beliefs or assumptions.

For example, if I pray for something as a christian and then I get what I asked for, tomorrow, or next week, or maybe even next year, it was always the christian god that directly answered my prayer. It could not be a coincidence. Coincidences like this never happen. Millions of people have believed in and worshiped thousands of gods for thousands of years with equivalent devotion and sincerity as me, but all those people were wrong, and none of those gods ever existed, which is how I know it couldn't have been any of those other gods that answered my prayer, instead of the christian one.

If I pray for something and I don't get it within a time frame that I deem acceptable, then the christian god said "no," or "wait."

If my muslim friend prays to Allah and gets what he asked for, it was either the christian god, not Allah, that extended mercy to him and answered his prayer, or it was the christian satan trying to deceive him into believing that Allah exists, or else it was just a coincidence. You know, a coincidence? Coincidences totally happen all the time. I can't think of any situation in which I would say something couldn't have been a coincidence.

Dennis said...

Nicely said Helen

nck said...

"I can't think of any situation in which I would say something couldn't have been a coincidence."

This statement is in accordance with the latest theory on our universe.

Everything in the universe and all its laws are exactly alligned to make life possible for mankind. This cannot be a coincidence. The chances of that happening are like having the winning lottery ticket in one lottery.

Close to zero.

However if there would be multiple universes or lotteries. Each with their own set of laws. Chances of having a universe like ours greatly increases.

So if we are to assume that it is indeed a coincidence that all the laws of the universe gravitate toward making human life possible THEN we are to assume that we are just ONE of billions of Universes (not galaxies but universes). All containing its own variations on laws of gravity, speed, etc etc ALL A winning lottery ticket by definition, with particular laws gravitating toward the winning of that unique lottery ticket.

So yes. There might be life in another universe, but not this one, and it would be completely different from ours.

btw: The chinese 3rd sattelite is succesful in quantum experiments. Particles thousands of miles away ARE communicating with particles on earth. (The first steps toward teleportation.) Beam me up Scotty and please not in a random or coincidental way.


Anonymous said...

One Cognitive Bias not listed is the Anti-Supernatural Bias. Since almost all religion is made up of man made myths, superstitions and personal opinions, any reference to a supernatural event will be treated with plenty of known facts that would create an Anti-Supernatural Bias. Human behavior by itself is a negative toward the concept of the supernatural.

Science is to stick to the "known" physical universe and the laws of physics and is offered as the answer to our existence. And yet science has discovered all kinds of facts that show a "unnatural" world exists.

The beginning of the universe was not natural occurrence. Unlimited energy coming from nothing. All the constants of physics that had to work together to create matter as we know it. These precise constants defy the laws of chance by light years. The incredible complexity of the cell show there never was anything such as a "simple cell". The cell itself is supernatural.

To cut it short, any inquiring mind can find a myriad of hard scientific facts that prove we don't live in "natural" world. Its supernatural.

Helen Wheels said...

"...any inquiring mind can find a myriad of hard scientific facts that prove we don't live in "natural" world. Its supernatural.

So, you're saying that the natural sciences prove something that is objectively outside the domain and scope of scientific inquiry, about which science is necessarily silent?

I think I just got dumber by having read and understood what Anon12:00PM wrote there. By virtue of definitions alone, it is internally inconsistent gibberish.

Byker Bob said...

The question of the day is, why do you think we call it COGnitive bias?


nck said...

Yes Helen,

12:00 assumes that energy came from nothing.
While current science gravitates toward the theory that there were/are multiple lotteries/universes at play. That energy could have come from the next bubble, perhaps even a bubble abiding by its own laws of physics that does not particularly support life as we know it in our bubble.