Friday, April 24, 2020

The plague


23 comments:

Ed said...

Covid 19 is clearly not a plague. If the fatality rate is calculated using numbers of likley infections and not the number of people testing positive it is much lower. It is very likely near the fatality rate of the flu epidemics we see every year. I don't understand that we shut down our economy to stop a virus that may not be any worse then the flu.

Tonto said...

I brush and floss my teeth thoroughly every day. I WILL NOT being a victim of any PLAQUES!

Anonymous said...

"I don't understand that we shut down our economy to stop a virus that may not be any worse then the flu.


Then the flu? Then the flu? Try than the flu. Lol, of course you don't understand and it's obvious why.

Anonymous said...

I don't understand that we shut down our economy to stop a virus that may not be any worse then the flu.

Health care workers have vaccines and herd immunity against the annual influenza. They can treat patients for all manner of problems even while fending off the flu. If they go down with COVID-19, not only are they down with an unknown disease; they are unable to treat patients for cancer, heart disease, gunshot wounds, etc. That alone makes COVID-19 a much more serious problem than the annual flu.

Also, remember the example of the Spanish Flu a hundred years ago. People THOUGHT they had it under control after its relatively small outbreak in 1918. It was the second wave in 1919 that did by far the worst damage. Already we are seeing cases where people "cured" of COVID-19 have been reinfected, so it makes sense to tread very lightly and not minimize this disease.

If the fatality rate is calculated using numbers of likley infections and not the number of people testing positive it is much lower. It is very likely near the fatality rate of the flu epidemics we see every year.

If one disease kills 1 in 100 who are infected, and another kills 1 in 1000 who are infected, the latter is just as bad as the former if it infects 10x more people. If some not-yet-duplicated studies turn out to be accurate, COVID-19 is much more infectious than the annual flu, so even if it is only as deadly as the flu its effect may be much, much worse.

But, are we over-reacting? Only if you wouldn't object to seeing several million Americans die of COVID-19 this year and next year, if indeed this pandemic comes in two waves as did the Spanish Flu. Already it is worse than the annual flu, though not by much. By this time next year, we'll know whether it was more like the Spanish Flu or just a really bad annual influenza season.

Anonymous said...

Isn't it nice that it was the Republicans who shut 'er down, Ed? As with all controversial decisions, there will be much second guessing after the fact from the comfortable position of knowing things that were unknowable at the time the decisions were made.

If you want to know how dangerous Covid 19 really is, look at the places where it was impossible to do social distancing or shutdown, like nursing homes, meat packing plants, big cities with dense populations, police departments, prisons, hospitals, and grocery stores.

The global economy was shutting down and there would have been economic chaos even if the US had decided not to participate. The US harbors and docks all up and down the western seaboard which service the Pacific Rim had furloughed workers due to nearly zero work as imports from Asia were no longer shipping to the US, fairly early in March.

I find it amazing that superconservatives are now outRepublicannning even our radical extremist president over the radio waves, the old battle over states rights has resurfaced amongst some of the plague enthusiasts who cannot understand the concept of "the greater good", and you have those who were always paranoid about "new world order" conspiracy theories implying that the current quarantining will become a permanent feature of American life.

A small number of protesters are in the streets fighting for their "rights" to endanger the rest of us. Recent polls indicate that up to 81% of Americans are in favor of maintaining "shelter in place" until the crisis is clearly over. Whatever damage has happened to the economy has already happened. That is now a past event from which we must dig our way out. Opening prematurely has the potential of causing a second wave, nullifying and exacerbating all of the sacrifices which have already been made, and we can't take another hit like that. Economists are already talking about states going bankrupt from the bailout, and the feds are not far behind. Imagine what happens if we have a really bad hurricane and tornado season this year. Better to stay the course until new infections and death rates have stabilized.

Anonymous said...

seeing several million Americans die

Typical, everything is about how many Yanks drop.
There was a comedy skit that showed a story on how many Americans were killed by sharks last year, with a caption "Only 320 million to go..."

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
seeing several million Americans die

Typical, everything is about how many Yanks drop.
There was a comedy skit that showed a story on how many Americans were killed by sharks last year, with a caption "Only 320 million to go..."

April 25, 2020 at 9:13 AM




Why do I get the sneaking feeling that you're the same person who was bitching about Pedro posting in Spanish?

km

Anonymous said...

April 25, 2020 at 8:16 AM> Hubris for the fearful.

Anonymous said...

Why don't we just make our own judgements? If someone is at high risk, then stay home. Those who are less vulnerable, if they choose, do whatever they want. Maybe, God could stop this virus if he wanted to. For those who believe, "a thousand shall fall at your side, but it shall not come near you," who cares what happens to the infidels. If God did, he would have protected the thousand at your side also. It is obvious, according to the Bible, that a few thousand deaths is no big deal. Don't believe me, believe your Bible.

I don't understand why most on this blog, who claim to believe God, would even care about Covid-19, since God should be protecting them from it. What's the matter, no faith?

Anonymous said...

Well, it's surely revolutionized suicide! Those who are looking for their ticket outa here need only go "Hey, man! Where can I catch the virus???"

Anonymous said...

9:47: Hubris and fearful are non sequitur, Einstein.

Anonymous said...

Yes Anon 10:08 they indeed lack faith.

Anonymous said...

What's the matter, no faith?

Remember in the line from one of the songs in the Purple Hymnal, "they shall not be hurt by deadly things".
I wonder what HWA would have done? Probably services as usual, but he'll stay home in Tucson.

When COVID-19 is over, what will we have learned?

Anonymous said...

km
No, it's not the same person who complained about Pedro.

Anonymous said...

There is a lot of evidence that the lock down is exaggerated in order to destroy the economy and bring on a great depression. The goal is what the left has always wanted--to collapse the system so they have an excuse to bring in radical changes, especially communism. As the left always says, never let a crisis go to waste. At the very least they hope to destroy the economy enough to get Trump thrown out of office in the election. I think it was lefty Bill Mehr (or whatever his name is) who essentially admitted as much. It's all lies and posturing. Lots of reasons for them to lie about this. ACOG preachers are falling for some of these lies and so is everyone else. People are hopelessly naive and docile.

Hoss said...

Over at ICG, Mark Armstrong appears to have toned down his rhetoric against COVID-19, but it's still there.
Interesting with COGS is that OT laws on washings and separation of the sick were not chosen in their cafeteria-style selection of commands. I remember in Bob Thiel's preach-the-law-every-seven-years sermon series (he read Deuteronomy, skipping a few verses) he used the same illogic to show washings, etc, were not required that he used to show other commands (such as triple tithing) were. I guess he didn't (fore-) see what was coming...

Byker Bob said...

Problem is, 3:31, neither the left, nor the right posesss 100% truth. The talking heads you look to did a good job of scaring you with regard to the liberal agenda. However, how would you explain the fact that these libs are scared too? They are worried that Trump is exploiting the corona virus to promote his Nazi nationalist agenda, making America white again, and that he will be declaring martial law soon and using his emergency powers to cancel the presidential elections.

See, you just can't think in terms of i-o, or black and white. There is no good side or bad side in this! You need to wake the hell up! Reality is that if either "side" wins, we're really fucked! Truth, justice, and equality need to be the victors, with liberty and justice for all. This is why it is so bad to politicize national emergencies and disasters.

BB

Byker Bob said...

To the taunter who keeps raising the issue of fear and faith: Those of us who are Christian realize that there are many diseases which, if one is careful enough, can be avoided through common sense practices. Know the old cliche, "God helps those who help themselves"? Well, it's a cliche for a reason. It's not a lack of faith to make or discuss certain preparations.

Post Covid 19? Since we watched powerful people go from "hoax" to listening to the scientists and embracing reality, hopefully it will have been an eye opener leading to better thinking regarding another very real problem, global climate change. One can only hope! 2020 was the year in which we as a planet were going to reach a new peak in the greenhouse gases. That's probably not going to happen now.

The president made many gaffes, breaches in science, in the daily Covid updates. He made recommendations which resulted in a glut of calls to doctors requesting prescriptions for medications which were either useless or actually harmful. It's been an international embarrassment, and very telling regarding how deep his fund of knowledge of scientific matters actually is. That has not really been terribly surprising to climatologists around the world. Hopefully, people recognized that for what it is, and have learned from it.

BB

Anonymous said...

However, how would you explain the fact that these libs are scared too? They are worried that Trump is exploiting the corona virus to promote his Nazi nationalist agenda, making America white again, and that he will be declaring martial law soon and using his emergency powers to cancel the presidential elections.
-------------------------

Bullshit. It is all about regaining power, otherwise the presidency. No cost is too low for a politician.

Tonto said...

Byker is very correct. The best we can hope for is INEFFICIENT government , with both sides tying each other up and in balance. The original framers of the USA sought to create a system of "separation of powers" for that very reason. The Judiciary and the Executive branches of government have gotten way too powerful.

Far Right and Far Left are both very dangerous propositions. Personal freedom, and smaller local government is necessary, both in the COGS and in regular life too.

Byker Bob said...

It is about retaining or regaining power for the leaders, James. Amongst the electorate, there is very real fear of the opposite party, as I've outlined. People vote for the party which they feel looks out for their best interests, whether that be the little guy on the street, or the fat cats with the big corporate interests. There's a lot of class warfare amongst the two, and it is fomented by and perpetuated by both mainstream parties.

BB

Anonymous said...

Does it bother anyone that the presidential election contest is between "Dumb and Dumber" and "Weekend at Bernie's"?
While the President did not specifically endorse drinking disinfectant, he was interested in the idea - which still bothers me.
Biden was not good before - now he appears to have dementia.
So we have a competition between a man who cannot keep his mouth shut and a man who does know what is coming out of his mouth.

Stephen Schley said...

I look for chaos in our future

Good luck y'all
Stephen ����‍��